Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Forensic Model Computations

Center for Nuclear Security Science and Policy Initiatives

Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station

Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Forensic Model Computations

 

Abstract:

This effort will develop the theoretical basis for the application of stochastic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to nuclear forensic computational models. This project will build on specific nuclear forensics models developed by NSSPI, such as the spent fuel RDD model and the post-detonation material attribution model for Pu and HEU based INDs to develop a method to identify the important parameters in these models for which uncertainty analysis is necessary and to develop stochastic spectral expansion formulations for UQ. This methodology will be implemented in the existing models.

 

Associated Publications:

  1. S.S Chirayath, C.R. Schafer, G.R. Long, "A new methodology to estimate stochastic uncertainty of MCNP-predicted isotope concentrations in nuclear fuel burnup simulations", Annals of Nuclear Energy, 151 (2021).

  2. R. Schafer, "Uncertainty Quantification of Fission Product Concentration Estimation in MCNP Fuel Depletion Simulations", M.S. Thesis, Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX (2019).

  3. R. Schafer, E. Kitcher, S. Chirayath, "Uncertainty Analysis of Fission Product Concentrations in MCNP Depletion Calculations", ANS Topical on Advances in Nuclear Nonproliferation Technology & Policy Conference (ANTPC), September 23-27, (2018).

  4. M. Sternat, "Development of Technical Nuclear Forensics for Spent Research Reactor Fuel", Ph.D. Dissertation, Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX (2012).

  5. M.R. Sternat, W.S. Charlton, T.F. Nichols, D.M. Beals, and R.L. Webb., "Nuclear Forensics Technique Development for Samples of Spent Research Reactor Fuel", 53rd Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Orlando, Florida, 15-19 July 2012.

  6. M.R. Sternat, W.S. Charlton, T.F. Nichols , "Monte-Carlo Burnup Calculation Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation Determination", 52nd Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM), Palm Desert, CA, July 17-21, 2011.

  7. T.F. Nichols, D.M. Beals, M.R. Sternat, R.L. Webb, "Reactor Physics Modeling of Spent Research Reactor Fuel for Technical Nuclear Forensics", 52nd Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM), Palm Desert, CA, July 17-21, 2011.

  8. M.R. Sternat, W.S. Charlton, T.S. Nichols, R. Webb, D.M. Beals, "Reactor Physics Modeling of Spent Nuclear Research Reactor Fuel for SNM Attribution and Nuclear Forensics", 51st Annual Meeting for the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Baltimore, Maryland, July 11-15, 2010.