Proliferation Resistance Analysis And Evaluation Tool for Observed Risk (PRAETOR)

Center for Nuclear Security Science and Policy Initiatives

Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station

Proliferation Resistance Analysis And Evaluation Tool for Observed Risk (PRAETOR)

Abstract:

The PRAETOR (Proliferation Resistance Analysis and Evaluation Tool for Observed Risk) code is software developed to assess and evaluate the relative proliferation resistance of nuclear energy systems. The definition and features of proliferation resistance (PR) assumed in developing the code are the following. PR is defined as that characteristic of a nuclear energy system that impedes (a) the diversion or undeclared production of nuclear material or (b) misuse of technology by States in order to acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Two important measures of PR are the intrinsic features of the special nuclear material and the extrinsic barriers at the nuclear installation. Intrinsic features result from technical design of nuclear energy systems and the extrinsic measures are those that result from the implementation of a States\’ undertakings related to nuclear nonproliferation. PRAETOR code is developed using FORTRAN 90 programming language based on the well established Multi Attribute Utility Analysis (MAUA) methodology. In general, the MAUA consists of several methods of compiling multiple factors into a single metric to facilitate easy decision making and has the ability to incorporate complex and inter-related components in a decision. For instance, each factor in the PR analysis has impacts on risks, resources, timelines, and/or levels of effort associated with the acquisition of a significant quantity (SQ) of special nuclear material (SNM).

Associated Publications:

  1. T. Aoki, S.S. Chirayath, H. Sagara, "Proliferation Resistance Evaluation of an HTGR Transuranic Fuel Cycle using PRAETOR code", Annals of Nuclear Energy, 141 (2020).

  2. S.S. Chirayath , R. Elmore, G. Hollenbeck, N.G. Chandregowda, W.S. Charlton, R. Metcalf, and J.C. Ragusa, "Proliferation Resistance Analysis And Evaluation Tool for Observed Risk (PRAETOR) Methodology", Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, 43, 2 (2015).

  3. R. Elmore, "Dynamic Agent Based Modeling using Bayesian Framework for Addressing Intelligent Adaptive Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis", Ph.D. Dissertation, Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX (2014).

  4. R.A. Elmore, S.S. Chirayath, S. Edreev, "Proliferation Resistance Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities to Quantify the Importance of Containment, Surveillance and Physical Protection Systems", 2014 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Annaheim, CA, 9-13 November 2014

  5. M. Subbaiah, W.S. Charlton, R. Elmore, R. Coogan, and D. Sweeney, "Effect of Grouping Motivations on State Proliferation Pathways", 2014 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Annaheim, CA, 9-13 November 2014

  6. S.S. Chirayath, R.A. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, "Containment and Surveillance and Physical Protection Updates for Proliferation Resistance Analysis Using PRAETOR", IAEA Symposium on International Safeguards, Vienna, Austria, October 20-24, 2014.

  7. R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, S. Chirayath, "Sensitivity Analysis with PRAETOR for Diversion of Plutonium Self-Protected with Pu-238", Transactions of the 2013 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Washington, D.C., 10-14 November 2013.

  8. R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, C. Freeman, M. Mella, "Bayesian Environment Framework for Nuclear Proliferation Agent Based Modeling Analysis", Transactions of the 2013 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Washington, D.C., 10-14 November 2013.

  9. R.A. Elmore and W. Charlton, "Bayesian Network Environment for Agent Based Modeling Proliferation Risk Analysis", INMM 54th Annual Meeting, 14-18 July 2013, Palm Desert, California, USA.

  10. R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, S. Chirayath, "Nuclear Proliferation Resistance Model Backgrounds and Method Comparative Analysis", 84th Annual National Technical Association Conference, Baltimore, MD, 19-21 September 2012.

  11. R.A. Elmore, W. Charlton, and S. Chirayath., "Proposed Benchmark Cases for Proliferation Risk Assessment Modeling.", 53rd Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Orlando, Florida, 15-19 July 2012.

  12. S. Chirayath et al, "Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis for Proliferation Resistance Assessment", presentation at the INMM Workshop on Proliferation Assessments, Texas A&M University, College Station, February, 23-25, 2010.

  13. R. Metcalf, "New Tool for Proliferation Resistance Evaluation Applied to Uranium and Thorium Fueled Fast Reactor Fuel Cycles", M.S. Thesis, Texas A & M University, May 2009.

  14. S. Chirayath, R. Metcalf, J. Ragusa, P. Nelson, "Assessment of Proliferation Resistance Requirements for Fast-Reactor Fuel-Cycle Facilities", 8th International Conference on Facility Operations - Safeguards Interface, Portland, Oregon, March 30 - April 4, 2008.