Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation assessment tools are critical to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that lead to proliferation resistance. We suggest that these limitations flow substantially from weaknesses in the foundations of existing methodologies: the initial data inputs. In most existing methodologies, little consideration has been given to the utilization of varying types of inputs — particularly the mixing of subjective and objective data — or to identifying, understanding, and untangling relationships and dependencies between inputs. To address these concerns, a model set of inputs is suggested that could potentially be employed in multiple approaches. We present an input classification scheme and the initial results of testing for relationships between these inputs. We will discuss how classifying and testing the relationship between these inputs can help strengthen tools to assess the proliferation risk of nuclear fuel cycle processes, systems, and facilities.
Sample map showing difficulty of diverting material from safeguarded activities
- R. Elmore, W. S. Charlton, "Nonproliferation Informatics: Employing Bayesian Analysis, Agent Based Modeling, and Information Theory for Dynamic Proliferation Pathway Studies", 2015 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, Baltimore, MD, May 27-29, 2015
- S.S. Chirayath, R. Elmore, G. Hollenbeck, N.G. Chandregowda, W.S. Charlton, R. Metcalf, and J.C. Ragusa, "Proliferation Resistance Analysis And Evaluation Tool for Observed Risk (PRAETOR) Methodology", Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, 43:2 (2015).
- R. Elmore, W. S. Charlton, "Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis Using Agent Based Modeling in an Entropy Empowered Intelligent Agent Bayesian Framework", 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, Savannah, GA, December 7-10, 2014
- R. Elmore, "Dynamic Agent Based Modeling using Bayesian Framework for Addressing Intelligent Adaptive Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis", Ph.D. Dissertation, Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX (2014).
- R.A. Elmore, S.S. Chirayath, and S. Edreev, "Proliferation Resistance Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities to Quantify the Importance of Containment, Surveillance and Physical Protection Systems", 2014 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Annaheim, CA, 9-13 November 2014
- M. Subbaiah, W.S. Charlton, R. Elmore, R. Coogan, and D. Sweeney, "Effect of Grouping Motivations on State Proliferation Pathways", 2014 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Annaheim, CA, 9-13 November 2014
- R. Elmore, and W. S. Charlton, "Addressing Challenges to Contemporary Nonproliferation Models and Methods through Bayesian Analysis and Agent Based Modeling", Inaugural US-UK Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) Conference, Reading, UK, November 4-5, 2014
- S.S. Chirayath, R.A. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, "Containment and Surveillance and Physical Protection Updates for Proliferation Resistance Analysis Using PRAETOR", IAEA Symposium on International Safeguards, Vienna, Austria, October 20-24, 2014.
- R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, S. Chirayath, "Sensitivity Analysis with PRAETOR for Diversion of Plutonium Self-Protected with Pu-238", Transactions of the 2013 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Washington, D.C., 10-14 November 2013.
- R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, C. Freeman, M. Mella, "Bayesian Environment Framework for Nuclear Proliferation Agent Based Modeling Analysis", Transactions of the 2013 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, Washington, D.C., 10-14 November 2013.
- R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, S. Chirayath, "Nuclear Proliferation Connection Implications within an Agent-Based Modeling Environment", Computational Social Sciences Society of the Americas Annual Conference, Santa Fe, NM, 22-25 August 2013.
- R.A. Elmore and W. Charlton, "Bayesian Network Environment for Agent Based Modeling Proliferation Risk Analysis", INMM 54th Annual Meeting, 14-18 July 2013, Palm Desert, California, USA.
- R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, S. Chirayath, "Comparative Analysis of Nuclear Nonproliferation Proliferation Resistance Approaches", Transactions of the 2012 American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting, San Diego, CA, 11-15 November 2012.
- R. Elmore, W.S. Charlton, S. Chirayath, "Nuclear Proliferation Resistance Model Backgrounds and Method Comparative Analysis", 84th Annual National Technical Association Conference, Baltimore, MD, 19-21 September 2012.
- R.A. Elmore, W. Charlton, and S. Chirayath., "Proposed Benchmark Cases for Proliferation Risk Assessment Modeling.", 53rd Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Orlando, Florida, 15-19 July 2012.
- S. Chirayath, W. Charlton, A. Stafford, C. Myers, B. Goddard, J. Alfred, M. Carroll, M. Sternat, E. Rauch, "Risk Informed Safeguards Integration Studies for a Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle", Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials and Management, Baltimore, MD, USA, July 11-15, 2010.
- S. Chirayath et al, "Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis for Proliferation Resistance Assessment", presentation at the INMM Workshop on Proliferation Assessments, Texas A&M University, College Station, February, 23-25, 2010.
- S. Chirayath, W. Charlton, A. Stafford, C. Myers, B. Goddard, J. Alfred, M. Carroll, M. Sternat, E. Rauch, "Risk Informed Safeguards Approaches for Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Utilizing MAUA based Proliferation Resistance Assessment", NSSPI-10-002, January 15, 2010.
- R. Metcalf, "New Tool for Proliferation Resistance Evaluation Applied to Uranium and Thorium Fueled Fast Reactor Fuel Cycles", M.S. Thesis, Texas A & M University, May 2009.
- S. Chirayath, R. Metcalf, J. Ragusa, P. Nelson, "Assessment of Proliferation Resistance Requirements for Fast-Reactor Fuel-Cycle Facilities", Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Facility Operations - Safeguards Interface, Portland, Oregon, March 30 - April 4, 2008.
- V.D. Cleary, P.E. Rexroth, G.E. Rochau, D.H. Saltiel, D. Greneche, S. Ng, W.S. Charlton, D.G. Ford, D. Giennangeli, "Strengthening the Foundations of Proliferation Assessment Tools", Sandia Report (SAND2007-6158), September 2007.
- D.D.J. Giannangeli, III , "Development of the fundamental attributes and inputs for proliferation resistance assessments of nuclear fuel cycles", M.S. Thesis, Texas A & M University, May 2007.
- W.S. Charlton, R.F. Leboeuff, C. Gariazzo, D.G. Ford, C. Beard, S. Landsberger, and M. Whitaker, "Proliferation Resistance Assessment Methodology for Nuclear Fuel Cycles", Nuclear Technology, 157, 143-156 (2007).