R. Elmore, W. Charlton, “Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis Using Agent Based Modeling in an Entropy Empowered Intelligent Agent Bayesian Framework”, 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, Savannah, GA, December 7-10, 2014
For decades, scholars have studied the proliferation of nuclear weapons by states. There have traditionally been two theories of proliferation: (1) the demand side in which proliferation is driven by the national security demand for the weapons and (2) the supply side in which proliferation is driven by the ready supply of nuclear materials and technology. We hypothesize that neither theory is strictly correct and that instead there is a crucial and dynamic interplay between the national security motivations of a state and the facilitation that ready access to supplies provides. In this work, we sought to determine if this interplay can be correctly simulated using Agent Based Modeling (ABM). The modular Bayesian ABM Nonproliferation Enterprise (BANE) tool has been developed at Texas A&&&M University for considering intelligent agents and dynamic nonproliferation scenario analysis. Using BANE we showed that the ABM can accurately model historical cases of proliferation as long as agent rules are properly defined. We also provided data that supports the hypothesize that nuclear proliferation is influenced by a dynamic balance between demand and supply drivers and political and military constraints. Future work explores a range of weapons of mass effect (WME) cross domain decision implications.