P. Nelson , “An Empirical Assessment of Elements of the Future of Civil Nuclear Energy”, NSSPI Report NSSPI-10-001
A methodology is described that combines an earlier empirical model of nuclear reliance (fraction of the electricity of a state that is produced by nuclear energy) with US Energy Information Administration projections of worldwide regional electricity demand to yield state-by-state projections of future electrical generation from nuclear energy. The following conclusions are drawn from comparisons of the resulting projections for year 2030 to World Nuclear Association estimates of nuclear intent at about that time.rni) For a group of 23 states that have been mentioned as new aspirants to civil nuclear energy, there is good agreement between the methodological projections and the WNA estimates for all except six states. The nature of the difference between intent and projection depends upon whether thernprojections of aspirant behavior assume these aspirants plan as if assured of future access to nuclear materials and technology to the extent historically associated to states aligned with one of the Nuclear-Weapon States. If that assurance is not assumed, then most of the significant differences occur in the direction of intent significantly greater than projection. On the other hand, if assurance is assumed, then the significant differences tend toward intent significantly smaller than projection. ii) The projections tend to support existence of a significant potential market for small and medium reactors, as compared to the now more-or-less standard reactors having capacities of 1000 Megawatts-electric or greater. iii) Currently scheduled closures of nuclear power plants in a number of states tend to run counter to projections. iv) For the 86 states in the data base underlying the empirical model, six display an extremely weak intent as compared to projections with assurance, and five show an extremely strong intent on the same comparison. The six states having an extremely weak intent have a mean per capita gross domestic product (based on purchasing power parity) nearly four times that of the five states havingrnan extremely strong intent.