S. Rodgers, C. Betancourt, E. Kee, P. Nelson, P. Rodi, “Toward Quantification of the Uncertainty in Estimating Frequency of Critical Station Blackout”, International Conference on Mathematics and Computational Methods Applied to Nuclear Science and Engineering (M&C 2011), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May 8-12, 2011.
A formal statement of the critical station blackout problem is provided, and a solution given, up to evaluation of an n-dimensional ‘nonrecovery integral’ n =number of trains (parallel backup sources of electrical power). Several approaches that have been developed in the industry to estimate probability of critical station blackout are shown to be interpretable as special cases of such integrals. Computational results, for a simple model problem, suggest there is yet a very substantial overconservatism in current state-of-the-art techniques for estimating probability of critical station blackout. Research issues associated to possibly meeting this need via computational evaluation of the nonrecovery integral are discussed.