M. Johansen, W. Charlton, D. Sweeney, “Study of the Nuclear Latency Value of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the Islamic Republic of Iran”, 57th Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM), Atlanta, Georgia, 24-28 July 2016.
The historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was implemented on January 16, 2016 between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the E3/EU+3. Policymakers would benefit from a reliable method to judge the effectiveness of this agreement. One method that can help inform policy decisions is with estimates of a state’s Nuclear Weapon Latency. Nuclear Weapons Latency is the time needed for a non-nuclear weapon state to develop a conventionally deliverable nuclear weapon. In this work Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Latency was quantified with and without the JCPOA using the Nuclear Weapons Latency Computational Tool developed by D. Sweeney and W. Charlton at Texas A&&&M University. A reference time was developed for each transition within the proliferation pathways using the reported capacity or production of a facility when known or using the Pakistani nuclear program as a historic model if the characteristics for the Iranian facility are not known. The analysis performed here shows that the large reduction in the stockpile of nuclear material and enrichment capability caused a sizable increase in the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Latency.