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Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Forensic Model Computations

This effort will develop the theoretical basis for the application of stochastic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to nuclear forensic computational models.  This project will build on specific nuclear forensics models developed by NSSPI, such as the spent fuel RDD model and the post-detonation material attribution model for Pu and HEU based INDs to develop a method to identify the important parameters in these models for which uncertainty analysis is necessary and to develop stochastic spectral expansion formulations for UQ. This methodology will be implemented in the existing models.

Publications:

  1. M.R. Sternat, W.S. Charlton, T.F. Nichols, D.M. Beals, and R.L. Webb., "Nuclear Forensics Technique Development for Samples of Spent Research Reactor Fuel," 53rd Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Orlando, Florida, 15-19 July 2012.
  2. M.R. Sternat, W.S. Charlton, T.F. Nichols , "Monte-Carlo Burnup Calculation Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation Determination," Proceedings of the INMM 52nd Annual Meeting, Palm Desert, CA, July 17-21, 2011.
  3. T.F. Nichols, D.M. Beals, M.R. Sternat, R.L. Webb, "Reactor Physics Modeling of Spent Research Reactor Fuel for Technical Nuclear Forensics," Proceedings of the INMM 52nd Annual Meeting, Palm Desert, CA, July 17-21, 2011.
  4. M.R. Sternat, W.S. Charlton, T.S. Nichols, R. Webb, and D.M. Beals, "Reactor Physics Modeling of Spent Nuclear Research Reactor Fuel for SNM Attribution and Nuclear Forensics," Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting for the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Baltimore, Maryland, July 11-15, 2010. See Document

 

Theses/Dissertations Produced:

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