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Motivating Factors of States Seeking to Acquire Civil Nuclear Programs

The methodology employed is that of quantitative empirical analysis, as is the cornerstone of the modern scientific approach to political science. The initial results consisted of a regression model of nuclear reliance (percentage of electricity generated within a state that stems from nuclear energy) against seven independent variables, with R2 value of 0.46, and seven outliers (of 86 states considered). These results were presented to the 2008 annual meeting (Nashville) of the Institute for Nuclear Material Management, and will appear in the proceedings (CD format) of that meeting (in press, as of late October 2008).

Subsequent work, with additional independent variables, has produced an improved linear (regression) model, with R2=0.53, only five independent variables, and six outliers. The analytic capabilities provided by this model have also been illustrated by way of its ability to provide a quantitative basis for an extensive discussion of the proliferation-related pluses and minuses of fuel-assurance programs. The details are in NSSPI Report 08-014, found in the list of publications to the right. A condensed version of this work is in preparation for journal submission.

Work currently underway includes the following: an exploration of the predictive capabilities of the latest linear model; incorporation of dynamic effects; and a two-stage model of the decision by states to acquire civil nuclear power.

Publications:

  1. P. Nelson, "Reassessing the Nuclear Renaissance," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 66(4), 11-22 (2010). See Document
  2. P. Nelson , "An Empirical Assessment of Elements of the Future of Civil Nuclear Energy," NSSPI Report NSSPI-10-001 See Document
  3. P. Nelson and C. Sprecher, "Are Sensitive Technologies Enablers of Civil Nuclear Power? An Empirical Study," Atoms for Peace, 3(2), 93-112 (2010). See Document
  4. P. Nelson and C.M. Sprecher, "Where will new nuclear power plants be constructed? Validation of a predictive model," Proceedings of 31st Annual Meeting of ESARDA, May 26-28, 2009, Vilnius, Lithuania. See Document
  5. P. Nelson and C.M. Sprecher, "What Determines the Extent of National Reliance on Civil Nuclear Power?," NSSPI Report NSSPI-08-014. 24 October 2008. See Document
  6. P. Nelson and C.M. Sprecher, "What Determines the Extent of National Reliance on Civil Nuclear Power?," Proceedings of the INMM 49th Annual Meeting, July 2008, Nashville, TN.

 

Theses/Dissertations Produced:

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