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P. Nelson and C.M. Sprecher, "What Determines the Extent of National Reliance on Civil Nuclear Power?," NSSPI Report NSSPI-08-014. 24 October 2008.


In order to better understand, quantitatively and objectively, the factors that have been associated with the extent to which a given state relies on nuclear energy to generate electricity (termed as nuclear reliance), regression analysis was applied to a set of fourteen hypothesized independent variables having associated measures constructed from a database assembled for this purpose. That process led to a basic linear model having five independent variables that collectively predict nuclear reliance with high confidence (p < .05, for all predictors) and acceptable goodness of fit, (R2 = 0.53). This basic linear model was then employed as a tool to analyze several more-or-less current topics related to proliferation. These include: the historical effectiveness of the nonproliferation regime, as regards the spread of sensitive fuel-cycle technologies; the premise underlying (fuel) assurance programs, as intended to ensure access to (insensitive) nuclear materials and technology, in return for forgoing development of sensitive technologies; and the persistent lack of recipient states willing to accept the bargain underlying assurance programs.


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Associated Project(s):

  • Motivating Factors of States Seeking to Acquire Civil Nuclear Programs

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