S. Rodgers, C. Betancourt, E. Kee, P. Nelson, and P. Rodi,
"Toward Quantification of the Uncertainty in Estimating Frequency of Critical Station Blackout,"
International Conference on Mathematics and Computational Methods Applied to Nuclear Science and Engineering (M&C 2011)
, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May 8-12, 2011.
A formal statement of the critical station blackout problem is
provided, and a solution given, up to evaluation of an
n-dimensional "nonrecovery integral" n =number of trains (parallel
backup sources of electrical power). Several approaches that have
been developed in the industry to estimate probability of critical
station blackout are shown to be interpretable as special cases of
such integrals. Computational results, for a simple model problem,
suggest there is yet a very substantial overconservatism in current
state-of-the-art techniques for estimating probability of critical
station blackout. Research issues associated to possibly meeting
this need via computational evaluation of the nonrecovery integral
Associated Project(s):Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power