V.D. Cleary, P.E. Rexroth, G.E. Rochau, D.H. Saltiel, D. Greneche, S. Ng, W.S. Charlton, D.G. Ford, D. Giennangeli,
"Strengthening the Foundations of Proliferation Assessment Tools,"
Sandia Report (SAND2007-6158), September 2007.
Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation assessment tools
have the potential to contribute significantly to a strengthened
nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear
fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation
resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the
inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between
attributes that lead to proliferation resistance. We suggest that
these limitations flow substantially from weaknesses in the
foundations of existing methodologies - the initial data inputs. In
most existing methodologies, little consideration has been given to
the utilization of varying types of inputs - particularly the
mixing of subjective and objective data - or to identifying,
understanding, and untangling relationships and dependencies
between inputs. To address these concerns, a model set of inputs is
suggested that could potentially be employed in multiple
approaches. We present an input classification scheme and the
initial results of testing for relationships between these inputs.
We will discuss how classifying and testing the relationship
between these inputs can help strengthen tools to assess the
proliferation risk of nuclear fuel cycle processes, systems, and
Associated Project(s):Proliferation Resistance Methods Development