D.J. Sweeney and W.S. Charlton,
"Simulating State Proliferation for Nuclear Weapons Latency,"
INMM 54th Annual Meeting, 14-18 July 2013, Palm Desert, California, USA.
The purpose of Nuclear Weapons Latency is to estimate the
probability that a state proliferator acquires a nuclear weapon in
a specific amount of time given a certain set of assumptions about
the resources, capabilities, and motivations of the proliferator.
Nuclear weapons proliferation by a state is a complex process
involving numerous proliferation pathways each requiring varying
amounts of time with various tradeoffs between benefits and risks
to the proliferator. To characterize Nuclear Weapons Latency while
properly addressing the complexities involved a Generalized
Stochastic Petri Net simulation for state proliferation has been
developed. Petri Nets provide a robust and flexible modeling
environment capable of simulating complicated models required for
detailed analysis of nuclear proliferation. This paper describes
the Petri Net simulation of nuclear weapons proliferation for
Nuclear Weapons Latency and presents initial verification studies
on the simulation. An analysis of several historical proliferation
cases is also given to demonstrate the viability of this
Associated Project(s):Nuclear Weapons Latency