D. Sweeney, J. Slanker, W.S. Charlton, and R. Juzaitis,
"Quantifying Nuclear Weapons Latency,"
Proceedings of the 2009 Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management
, Tucson, AZ, July 12-15, 2009.
Researchers at Texas A&M University have developed
for nuclear weapons latency. Nuclear weaponslatency refers
to the amount of time it would take a state to
develop nuclear weapons given the state's current
technology, resources, and priority given to
the weapons program. A state with a fully
developed nuclear fuel cycle and capable military
infrastructure would have a high degree of latency while
a state lacking either of those components would have lower a
degree oflatency. Using latency as a basis, it may be
possible for the IAEA or other inspecting agencies to more
appropriately and effectively allocate resources. The metrics
developed will be used to construct a model capable of evaluating a
state's latency. This paper describes the current progress in
creation of this model and will detail the mathematical methodology
used. This paper also presents a preliminary list of proliferation
cases used for development and testing of
the latency model.
Associated Project(s):Nuclear Weapons Latency