G. Coles, A. White, V. Fitch, and M. Subbaiah,
"Probabilistic Model Using Correlates of Sensitive Technologies and Expert Judgment,"
57th Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM), Atlanta, Georgia, 24-28 July 2016.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Texas A&M
University (TAMU) collaborated to develop a Bayesian network model
that estimates the likelihood that a state will proliferate. The
model is based on statistical investigation performed by academic
International Relations community associated with the spatial
proximity and geopolitical relationships between states. The model
uses compiled data, and ideas developed by Fuhrmann and Tkach
(TAMU), and PNNL's experience in developing Bayesian network models
of social behavior. Bayesian network models can be informed by
expert judgement as well as historical data, which may be important
given that factors associated with whether a state decides to
pursue and acquire nuclear weapons capabilities change over time.
The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the benefits of
performing analysis using a Bayesian network model in assessing
Associated Project(s):Correlates of Sensitive Technologies