"Algorithms for Incorporation of Dynamic Recovery in Estimating Frequency of Critical Station Blackout,"
M.S. Thesis, Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX (2012).
This thesis involves exploring enhancement of estimating
the probability of a critical station blackout in nuclear power
plant operations by the use of direct numerical evaluation of
multidimensional nonrecovery integrals. This requires development
of computational methods with data provided from South Texas
Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC). Several methods that
are currently used in the industry to estimate such probabilities
often overestimate the value substantially. The computational
integral method developed in the thesis will reduce excess
conservatism while maintaining plant safety standards. This
computational integral is calculated using a MATLAB research code
referred to generally as "STP-TAMIL" which is for South Texas
Project --Texas A&M Improved LOOP. The code itself (along with
the user manual) was developed in conjunction with this Thesis.
STP-TAMIL is successful in reducing the estimated probability of
critical station blackout by a significant amount (about 88.47
percent ) with the incorporation of recovery of offsite and onsite
power for South Texas Project̕ s nuclear plants, and results were
verified. This thesis also describes an asymptotic justification
for to the non-recovery integral used. Applications to the
industry, or STPNOC, which will use the "TAMIL" code are addressed.
Some assumptions used throughout the problem suggest that if more
dynamic rates or distributions are used then more recovery can be
obtained, which will decrease the probability of critical station
blackout. Methodology developed in this thesis will be used in
future work to develop this STP-TAMIL research code into a model
used industry wide in commercial nuclear power plants.
Associated Project(s):Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power